2026 Real Estate Outlook: What to Watch in the Broader Market — and Why Mammoth Lakes Stands Out as a Resort Gem
As we move through 2026, the U.S. real estate market continues its healthy reset. After several years of extremes, forecasts from Matthew Lehman Real Estate, NAR, Redfin, Zillow, and other experts point to steady improvements: mortgage rates settling in the low to mid 6% range, inventory gradually increasing, and national home prices rising about 1 to 2% on average. Wage growth is finally helping affordability in many areas.
In resort destinations like Mammoth Lakes, however, the dynamics remain more vibrant. Tourism strength, year-round outdoor appeal, limited developable land, and ongoing new developments create unique opportunities for buyers, sellers, and investors. At Matthew Lehman Real Estate, we see these factors driving consistent interest, whether for a personal mountain retreat, a reliable income property, or commercial space in a thriving hospitality scene.
Current and Archived Projects | Mammoth Lakes, CA – Official Website
- Interest Rates: Gradual Relief, Strong Buffer in Resort Markets
Mortgage rates are averaging around 6.3%, a noticeable improvement that helps buyer purchasing power without dropping back to ultra-low levels. There is push from the executive branch of the federal government to push these rates even lower, so keep an eye on this.
In Mammoth Lakes (via Matthew Lehman Real Estate): Vacation home and investment buyers frequently use cash or strong financing, so rate fluctuations have less impact here. Properties with established short term rental performance near the slopes or Village continue to draw serious attention. Also, check with you local lenders to see what properties quality for conventional financing, we cannot emphasize this enough at Matthew Lehman Real Estate.
- Inventory: National Growth Meets Local Scarcity
Across the country, inventory has risen 10 to 20% or more from pandemic lows, giving buyers more choices and better negotiation room in many markets.
Mammoth Lakes Spotlight (via Matthew Lehman Real Estate): True availability for buyers remains constrained. High seasonal and vacation use keeps overall vacancy around 60 to 65%, while active listings typically range between 100 and 180, with many focused on investor friendly condos. Scarcity combined with steady tourism demand continues to support pricing stability. Matthew Lehman Real Estate noticed inventory levels peaking during August of 2025 with those levels pulling back since.
- Price Trends: Modest Gains Broadly, Rock Solid in Premium Spots
National home prices are expected to appreciate 1 to 2% overall, with stronger performance in the Northeast and Midwest and softer trends in some overbuilt Sun Belt areas.
Mammoth Update (via Matthew Lehman Real Estate): Median sale prices for single family homes in prime segments hold steady around $1.3M (flat year over year in recent reports), while broader medians range from $749K to $950K. Per square foot values stay firm in desirable ski in/ski out and Village adjacent locations, tourism demand and limited supply provide strong protection against significant declines.
- Commercial & Hospitality: Mammoth’s Biggest 2026 Story
Nationally, experiential retail is rebounding, office space is stabilizing for hybrid needs, and leisure hospitality performs well in destination markets.
Mammoth Lakes Boom (via Matthew Lehman Real Estate): Hospitality continues to lead with major investments and new openings, including the grand opening of the luxury Limelight Mammoth Hotel & Residences, located steps from the Village gondola, ongoing renovations at Mammoth Mountain Inn, Westin Monache, and Whitebark Restaurant, new additions such as Fifty-fifty Mammoth Brewpub, Mammoth Brewing upgrades, and unique spots like Toomey’s Minaret Club speakeasy, improved flight service and infrastructure supporting increased year round visitation.
At Matthew Lehman Real Estate, we specialize into just in mid to high end home sale, but also in these high-demand categories. Restaurants, lodging, and mixed-use retail in high traffic areas remain rare and highly valuable, with limited new supply creating excellent opportunities for investors.
- Investor Playbook for 2026 (Insights from Matthew Lehman Real Estate)
Residential: Focus on condos with proven short term rental histories near lifts or the Village for consistent cash flow.
Commercial/Hospitality: Mixed use properties, restaurants, and lodging in vibrant zones offer strong potential, especially as new projects signal continued long-term growth.
In Mammoth, the combination of tourism recovery, fresh developments, and constrained inventory makes hospitality investments particularly attractive.
Woodsite Project – New Development in Mammoth Lakes
Residence Inn by Marriott Mammoth Lakes
Bottom Line for 2026
The broader market is moving toward balance, with more opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. Mammoth Lakes, however, offers something extra: a lifestyle investment supported by scarcity, ongoing enhancements, and year-round appeal.
At Matthew Lehman Real Estate, our team brings deep local expertise, top producing results (as a leading brokerage in Inyo and Mono Counties), and a dedicated focus on both residential and commercial properties in the Eastern Sierra. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, we’re here to help you navigate the market with confidence.
Ready to explore Mammoth this year? Reach out anytime, we’d love to discuss your goals. Visit MatthewLehmanRealEstate.com or give us a call. Let’s make your mountain vision a reality. 760-934-1110
